Global economic growth

Global GDP

Evidence that the global economy may be unexpectedly stalling has jarred prominent economists and policy makers gathered in Washington for the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. At a conference on Thursday, Lawrence H. Summers, the former United States Treasury secretary who now teaches at Harvard, highlighted this concern.“The defining challenge of our time, economically, is secular stagnation,” he said. “It is the risk of inadequate growth, leading to inadequate potential, leading to inadequate growth.”

Oil is at a four year low in LA and the S & P barely up for the year with volatility rising.

Can India with its ‘Make in India’ slogan revive the hope for growth back into the global economy. Manufacturing is just starting to grow under Obama after the great recession and its multinationals have finally fixed their balance sheets, and are ready for investing billions. India will need Nuclear Plants, Modern Railroads, Ports, Airports, Cities, Technology and infrastructure improvements for well into the next century. There is enough growth potential with its young population; that needs housing, schools, universities, healthcare, factories, retailers and all kinds of services.

There is no better source for cheap American gas to flow to India and the energy be converted into making a modern society. 100 nuclear plants would need to be built, to supply the forecasted demand for India over the next century, along with other renewal energy like wind, solar, bio-gas, tidal, hydro etc. Massive investment into India will provide much needed growth and a lot of money lying on the side at zero interest, would come into this new opportunity.

The only thing holding back the inflow has been the injudicious Indian taxation system; combined with the punitive courts that enforce often confusing archaic laws; forgotten even in the countries, that introduced them. Nightmares due to some random litigation, that could last decades; is just one of the minor hurdles of folks jumping in; as even dipping a toe was just recently allowed, in the largely socialist economy. Massive disinvestment is needed to raise capital from State run enterprises, without allowing associated corruption and litigation, to finance the investments required to close the budgetary gap, and to pay for the future infrastructure, so desperately needed.

“The drop in energy prices acts as a tax cut for consumers, by giving a small bump to real disposable income.” India as an importer will benefit from this drop and lower prices will help close their GDP gap, and reduce outflows and allow more investment at home. This could lead to a rise in Industrial production so badly needed; to get the economy out of the current doldrums, and boost much needed growth, for the hard pressed Mr. Jaitely. Will the US, China, Japan help him put the Indian train back on its track; to become the second largest economy in Asia in this century. In the next century a modern India will eventually become the leader of the free world; in keeping with its history from 1 AD, till the reign of Aurangzeb in the 18th century.

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About Rajiv Kapoor

Rajiv Kapoor was born in New Delhi. He was educated by the Jesuits at St Xavier’s, and graduated with Honors, from The University of Delhi. Rajiv Kapoor did his MBA in International Business from Penn State and is now settled in the US. He has traveled across most states of India, when he was working on modernization of Rice Mills, and understands their diverse culture and history. This book is a historical fiction, dedicated to his city of birth. His extensive research dives deep into a critical moment, in India’s long history, for his latest Historical Thriller “The Peacock Throne Wars”..

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