New Gang of four

Country Share of Contribution to
Global GDP Growth
  World 100.0%
1  United States 19.5%
 European Union 19.1%
2  China 11.4%
3  India 5.1%
4  Japan 4.0%

BNY Mellon Cox’s newest simulation assumes Japan manages to average growth of 2 percent for the rest of this decade, the U.S. 3 percent, China 7 percent and India 8 percent. He says that if this Gang of 4 starts to fire on all four cylinders, then we could see another $ 10 Billion added to the group’s GDP by 2020. This is not an unrealistic scenario as the current leaders Abe, Obama, Xi and Modi are all pushing for better trade treaties and greater growth. In fact these targets may be exceeded if we can only keep war at bay, and not allow any economic shocks to develop.

The banks and the largest corporations have survived the Great Recession, and have learnt a valuable lesson, and their balance sheets are stronger now. The consumer is more willing to spend, and create the demand, that growing industrial companies and service corporations will provide. There is an opening up of trade and commerce, and the next cycle of cheap manufacturing for the masses, is about to start in India. The newly created billions of consumers in Asia will become a driving force, and the young generations will develop the next smart cities, and mass transportation systems.

In my optimistic view these numbers can be surpassed with cheaper fuel costs and greater use of Green energy to save the environment. There is so much demand for green housing, higher education, better skill training, improving healthcare, more geriatric care and improved logistics, that nation building can go on for decades. We just need to balance incomes so the poor can become self-sufficient, and productive citizens. Current disparity if it continues will lead to Larry Summers ‘secular stagnation’ and we will not benefit from a growing middle class. Greater opportunity and greater trade and commerce is the only way out of this morass of low growth. Financial inclusion for the poorest of the poor, is the cry of the hour.

The time is now ripe as we have abundant resources and technology to take humanity, to the next level of existence. With a well-oiled economic engine, we can expect current growth; to create more savings and investments, in a virtuous spiral of growth. We are all in this together and if the stars align, then the new leaders will take the steps to create the right political and social environment, for this economic miracle to take place. I welcome all steps in the direction of human development and peace and prosperity for all. May the next decades be the time, for the emergence of this unlikely  gang of four; to rise to their pinnacle. We look forward to finally eradicating poverty, and bringing human equality, prosperity, dignity and well being to all our citizens.

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